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Showing posts from August, 2021

Etsy Q2 2021: The Most Important Thing is TAM Saturation

A mixed quarter, at best. Last week, Etsy reported 31% non-mask GMS growth. Mask sales were ~$40M this quarter on the way to $0. Putting up 31% growth was encouraging to see compared to what was implied by their guidance last quarter. If the earnings call stopped there, the stock would have popped. Sadly, management guided to just mid-teens non-mask GMS growth in Q3, which signals clear post-COVID slow down. During the quarter, Etsy core GMS decelerated significantly from $1B to $840M a month. The new guidance implies that GMS has stabilized at >$800M per month. Now it's possible that Etsy guided conservatively and could beat this number as they did last quarter when they guided to 10% GMS growth, with one month of data to gauge the trend, and ended up growing 13%. Still 15% non-mask growth may not be good enough for its growth-oriented investors. Source: Etsy Source: Etsy, me That's a good segue into TAM saturation. Active buyers and habitual buyers were flat sequentially. ...