Long Netflix with a $373 price target, reflecting an 30% return. A recent miss on subscriber net adds and streaming announcement of several large competitors led to disappointing stock performance that has helped the stock come down from irrational valuation levels. This research explores whether Netflix can sustain its subscriber growth to justify its current valuation.
MSCI is a high-quality compounder that has near monopoly position in the international index business. It benefits from several secular tailwinds that will provide mid-teens earnings growth for the next decade. MSCI’s market position in ESG research has potential upside as large as the passive investing trend we saw over the last 2 decades. While ESG makes up just 6% of the business today and is overshadowed by a wonderful core index business, it is the fastest growing segment that saw accelerated growth recently. Further, it should generate operating margins somewhere between that of a ratings agency and an index provider (50 – 70+% margin). I believe the market undervalues the earnings power of the MSCI due to ESG segment’s relative size and lower visibility as well as the company’s extremely long-term reinvestment horizon.
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