Long Meituan Dianping with a $112 HKD price target, reflecting an 87% return. Meituan’s value is driven by growth in its food delivery GTV and path to monetization and cross-sale opportunities. The company’s IPO in 2018 was accompanied with the news of Alibaba’s acquisition of Ele.me (its main competitor). Concerns with competition from Alibaba led to suppressed valuation for the fast-growing tech company. Trade war headlines also irrationally affected its valuation in December even though it has no exposure to international trade. Headline news seems to have clouded the market’s view on what I believe is a sustainable moat. With the recent industry consolidation, Meituan’s management team has shown ability and willingness to further monetize its growing GTV.
MSCI is a high-quality compounder that has near monopoly position in the international index business. It benefits from several secular tailwinds that will provide mid-teens earnings growth for the next decade. MSCI’s market position in ESG research has potential upside as large as the passive investing trend we saw over the last 2 decades. While ESG makes up just 6% of the business today and is overshadowed by a wonderful core index business, it is the fastest growing segment that saw accelerated growth recently. Further, it should generate operating margins somewhere between that of a ratings agency and an index provider (50 – 70+% margin). I believe the market undervalues the earnings power of the MSCI due to ESG segment’s relative size and lower visibility as well as the company’s extremely long-term reinvestment horizon.
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